December

27.
+9 pips




28.
-55 pips
- totally tilted





31.
+36 pips
-when market is "right" profit is easily obtained



Forex Myths: Simple vs Complex Strategies

Since I started to learn trading, I heard a lot that "I should keep it simple!". Maybe all of you are familiar with this sentence, but what this really means ?

Based on a healthy trader plan, beginner or not, the right way to start trading a new strategy or system, is to test it on demo for a while, before jumping on the real money account.

So, lets say you are a beginner and learned already the "simple" tools like Trend Lines, Support/Resistances, Channels and Moving Averages. You started by paper trading (history), you tested it on live (but demo) and you decided it's working great. And you started real money account trading with these tools. And it's working. Whats the next step ? Are you gonna stay with this trading style ? From my personal experience, I don't think so.

First of all, it's human nature, to "complicate" things. Second of all, you can't use only the above mentioned tools, forever. Because you will notice is not working all the times. And you will start to wonder why. That is a crucial moment for a beginner trader, because they will jump fast to the  conclusion, that is not working so they will think of changing it completely, with something new and different. Which is wrong, sometimes. Maybe you didn't learn it well, so all you need is to stop trading it on real, go to demo again and don't come back to real, until you will find out what went wrong. Also, you can add other advanced tools to filter your fake signals.

Therefore it doesn't matter if your strategy or system will work or not, you will change/upgrade it, all the time. But the main question is still: How simple you should keep your trading style ?

For those of you that studied my course and/or attended my live classes groups, try to remember that time, when you joined advanced level class. You were starting demo trading for beginners lessons and tools, already, while you were doing paper trading (history) with the intermediate level tools and strategies. Also, when you completed the intermediate, you started to use those intermediate level tools, on live, but still demo. On the next step, you started to use, the advanced tools for paper trading again. But your live trading portfolio already contain beginners and intermediate level tools. And ofcourse, when you finished the advanced level class, you started to use on real, the beginners and intermediate level tools, while you were still practicing demo, the advanced ones.

If you will try to remember your basic charts, from the beginning, you will all notice those tools "looks too simple", for you, now. That is because, many of you are advanced traders right now. And probably some of you, already using the advanced tools, on your real money account.

This is the most logical cycle of learning: getting familiar with the basics, practicing it and using it profitable, in the end.  By working like this, after many years, you will notice a big difference in your trading style, because even advanced tools, are simple for you, today. 

The real problem is when you think, you already reached the advanced level, but you didn't took the right steps and you are using it wrong, even the basic tools. This could happen if you are having a lack of patience in your learning curve.

Simple vs Complex Strategies

By keeping your trading style as simple as can be (efficient), doesn't mean you should stop learning. In trading learning will never stop. It shouldn't. That doesn't mean, that you should try all the possible ideas of all the traders around the web, either. In my point of view it means you should always look for new ways of improving your systems or your trading style. Because you will try to maximize your profits. You want to be more efficient. And since there is no perfect system, you will always try to explain yourself those bad entries signals, exits, etc. This is why we keep the trading journal, right ? Those marks, chart examples and questions, will help us to become better traders, eventually.

Could you ever go back to your previous "simple" tools ? Should you ?

In my way of seeing it, it's not likely to do it. Because when I've decide it to go on real with that tool or system, it means I've tested it for months. So I had a good reason to proceed with it, on the next step: the real trading. Same steps, for upgrading it (adding new tools). So, there's no point for me, to make it simple than that, anymore.

Conclusions

I think this common saying "keep it simple!", is good, mostly for the beginners, due to human nature of complicating things, when they shouldn't. Because in that moment, many think a complicated chart is better. But is not, for them. That's why we say about their charts that looks like "Christmas Trees", when they add tens of oscillators and indicators, that will make them more confused, than helping them. That it is wrong, indeed.

But because some people will remember this sentence, later on, when they reached the advanced level, they will stop learning, thinking "Hey, I should keep it simple!". Which in my opinion is wrong, again. You will never become pro trader like this. You will remain a beginner forever.
(e.q. Remember when you saw my charts, initially ? Remember all you questions about ? How about now, when you already drawing it, almost like me ? Would you stop developing, now ? Would you go back to your "simple" charts, again ?)

Well, ofcourse depends on what do you expect from your trading activity. But don't you ever think, that using only few simple tools, you will have profitable results forever.

Therefore, I think this is a misconception, for most of the traders, beginners or not. In my opinion the right saying should be: "Keep it simple, according to your level!".  And as advanced level trader, don't you ever think "Simple is better!", as long as you know well and you tested properly your "complex" strategy or system.


Best Regards,
^^_Lord_Ice_^^

Forex Myths: Intraday vs Higher Time Frame (HTF)


After reaching a certain level of knowledge, the beginner trader look for a strategy or system, to start his paper trading. Here, in this stage he will take a decision that will haunt him for years. Some people realize it later, some people don't. And they will "run in this circle", for years.

So, this stage can be considered, the first huge mistake, that will change his trading activity for at least a long time, if not forever (Until he will quit trading or keep trying it, but with small results or none). His dilemma is:

Higher Time Frame or Lower Time Frame (Intraday) ?

Due to human nature, most of the people have a lack of patience. In this stage they want to start real trading soon. So they will chose a Intraday strategy for paper trading, then demo and in the end on real trading account. If the beginner would have proper knowledge he would still have to test this strategy for 3-6 months. But again, the lack of patience would make him to consider a shorter period of testing, before starting real trading. This combination of starting Intraday trading, combined with a short period of testing on demo is the most lethal, for the beginners. In my opinion, the fail is close to 100%. ( How many traders, even profitable ones, can say, that they started to have profits from the beginning ? I didn't ! ).

Like I said, the first mistake is choosing Intraday. And this is why I wanted to explain you why, in this article. There is another reason that will make the beginner to choose the Intraday trading (strategy), except his lack of patience for testing. That will be the sellers and all their promo materials. And since the beginners started to learn about trading from their materials, he will be influenced to chose this path.

Lets see...why! And let's take a close look at the real deal of the sellers in this area.


Brokers

As you all know, we can't start trading as a retail trader, unless we are trading using "the third party", the broker services. Also, as you all know, the main income source for the brokers, is the spread.

So, let's do an exercise and see what would be the best deal for a broker:

Let's say he would have a client, that trade on Intraday. Probably will make 10 entries + 10 exits/day at a spread of just 2 pips.

10 x 2p + 10 x 2 pips = 40 pips/client/day/pair

And in 1 month, lets say this client will trade all days, from Monday to Friday:

20 days x 40pips = 800 pips/month/pair

If we will consider this for 1 full lot and aprox $10 for 1 pip...and probably the client will trade many pairs, each day, that must be a good deal...for a broker.

Now, lets see how much will pay a client ( and will earn the broker ), if the client, will trade as a "swing trader" or a trend follower. By trading all month, on HTF, the client will not have more than 10 trades.

10 trades x 4 pips (entry +exit) = 40 pips/month/pair

So an Intraday trader would pay 800pips/month and a Swing Trader would pay...40pips/month (or a Trend Follower on HTF)

Now, what do you think is the best deal for a broker ? An Intraday trader ? Or a HTF trader?

That doesn't mean that a broker want his clients to lose money. They just don't have time for all their clients to learn after the initial contact (phone/e-mail) or to trade HTFs. That broker employee can't go to his boss and say:

"Hey...I've contacted few hundreds of potential clients, this month. They all agree with our services and they will start trading with us...in 6-12 months from now...when they will learn about trading!" If the broker would pay to that employee for 1 year...without having any new clients, he will ruin his business. Also, if they were agree for a monthly commission (from spread mostly), do you think that the broker employee would like to see you doing 10 trades/month, only, when he could have all his clients doing 10 trades/day...?

Imagine a broker that will earn so hard his clients, in months or years, since they practice and start to trade HTF (less profits for the broker) and then, to lose most of them, just because another broker have a new better services. This will ruin the initial example broker business, fast. So he must be able to sign faster the contracts with new clients, even if they will lose most of them in few months (because they'll blow their accounts), since the broker can have more new clients each month.


Introducing Brokers


There are IBs that receive a bonus for opening an account and some don't. But still, for both cases, the broker will pay the IB, a commission from their clients payed spreads.

Usually this commission is around 20- 25% from the payed spread (by the client as trader). So, from those 4 pips/ trade (entry +exit), 1 pip will be the IBs commission. Broker agree to pay this, because that IB, found him a client. The broker would of payed this 1 pip/trade commission to any of his employees.

Now, what do you think is the best deal for a IB since he get a % from the spreads? An Intraday trader ? Or a HTF trader?


Signals Providers

The signals providers charge a monthly fee, for providing to their clients trading signals for their activity. Usually these services fees are around $100-300, for one pair signals or more pairs.

Anyway, lets say you payed $300 and you wait for a signal. Lets say the Signal Provider, wont give you any signal for your payed pair, for...10 days. This could happen, if he would provide you these signals based on HTF analysis. How would you feel to pay a monthly service and to start with 10 days, with no activity ?

Not to mention that this Signal Provider, has the "money back" privacy (as marketing). If they would provide these signals on HTF, they would have tens or hundreds of e-mails/day asking for their payed signals that weren't received yet or money back. Doesn't matter how good are these signals

So, they have to provide you Intraday signals. Because in this way, they can "find" at least few possible entries, starting the first day. If 3 from these "signals" are wrong...they could say: "Hey, but 2 were good! We can't be right all the time! Wait for the next signals!".

They don't care about the quality of their signals. They can always say: "Hey, nobody can be 100% profitable!".  And as long as you receive it daily, you are happier than paying $300 for only 10 signals. And if they'll "ruin" their image...they will start over, under a new "brand" website, ID, etc.

That doesn't mean that a HTF Signal Provider, is good for you. Even if you are profitable with it, you will never know how they do it. So, you'll never learn and you will always be a "client". Not a trader...


EAs/Indicators sellers

Usually the EAs/Indicators are built for Intraday. For HTF are not suited, because you need to keep your trading platform on.

Imagine of keeping your trading computer ON for 2 weeks, just to find few HTF entries using an EA. Is not that comfortable.

Same for a very expensive, Indicator that was built for HFT. You just have to watch it everyday, for hours, hopping to find an entry "confirmation". And it could come for few times/month...


The same situation will be for Strategies Sellers, Trainers and Money Managers (that charge a monthly fee instead a % from profits ) and sometimes even book writers - personal websites with referral links - since all the sellers in this field start their services "portfolio" as a Introducing Broker (for a commissions from spreads), they will  promote Intraday trading. Because is in their best interest to do so.


Conclusions:

As a client, you need to see faster, the results (lack of patience), even if those results are not so good, initially or never.

And instead of promoting HTF (less money for them) for having a bigger % of profitable clients, the sellers prefer to "lose" some clients and replace them with new ones fast, each month.

I'm not saying that everyone will lose money on Intraday. Just, that all the sellers promote it, because Intraday = more money for them. Knowing this, you might wanna think about it, when you want to start you trading activity.

Remember, also, that Intraday "belong" to Institutional Traders ( Trading Companies with with hundred to thousands floor traders, that have way better internet connections than home users and fast news sources - before even posted on newspapers or websites ). You don't want to start your trading carrier here, in this area, as a retail trader (work from your home).

Beginners should start really HTF trading ( ideal Weekly). Then as they'll have better knowledge and experience, they can "lower" the TF. Personally, I found out that W to H1 is the "safest zone" for a retail trader (beginner or advanced one). Specially one that don't want to be +8h/day in front of his computers.


Best Regards,
^^_Lord_Ice_^^

Forex Myths: Seems that everyone is trading, today.

I'm sure everyone searches the web for the info related to trading. We started like this as beginners, in need of a strategy or system. We do it as advanced traders, searching for news, analysis, rapports, etc.

While we are surfing the web, we see a very aggressive advertising campaign, usually promoting services related to trading. We can say this is ok. This is how they look for their clients. Now, since social networking has exploded, we find many people promoting trading.

Some of them claiming they are "traders for living". This can make us believe that everyone is trading today. So who is behind this advertising around the web?  Usually these guys have the "I'm a rich person, I do this just for fun!" attitude, when they promote the "services" (claiming they are real traders).

Another problem starts when this kind of “trader" starts to combine these "services" presented down below and offer you a complete "portfolio" of services, from opening an account to managing it. You will never be a successful trader "working" with these guys. You will just fill the "more than 95% losers" in this field. 

You can spot many of them on Facebook, usually having a "sexy girl" as their profile photo (not more than 3 photos). Just try to read the comments on their photos: "wow, so hot!", "what a beautiful IB/MM, I have!", "thanks for being my friend...you are so sexy!”

First time you notice that, you will make a huge LOL, but if you will try to think more about it...you will start to cry. This is how many poor people are tricked and usually they lose all their money. Me, personally, I would never ever pay for something (service/product), just because a "sexy girl" presents me that offer, but I guess there are lots of poor men out there...

In my country there is a saying: "Is not a fool the one that ask...but the one that pay the ...****! I guess in this case these "traders", that need to sell services to “make a living” from trading, are right, but is this ethical? Is there anyone going to do something about it?

I'd like to believe that there are still fair people out there that promote these services, in an honorable manner. This should be the smart people’s business, not a scammer’s world.


Introducing Brokers
Introducing Brokers are usually promoting their referral links. If you click on these links and register to that broker, they will receive a commission (place your mouse on that link and you will see some strange digits and characters on your Add-on bar, bottom-left on your screen - if you have it activated on your browser) 

This commission can be paid one time only, either when you register as a client or a monthly % from spreads. Until now, it looks good. We can consider IBs as a sales mobile department of a broker, but what if this IB is spamming the web? (E-mail, facebook groups walls, "smart comments" on forums, etc).

Why should I choose this annoying person from all the others thousands of IBs, promoting the same broker? Is he/she going to present me the broker services in a fair way? Does he receive a proper training on how to present the broker services?
The answer is no! If you don't believe me, try to contact a broker that offers IB programs.

No market experience needed (if you mention you have it, is more than enough). No anti-spam policy explained (only mentioned in the contract, but nobody consider it if you report it for any IB), not to mention, no proper training for giving to their clients, proper consultancy.

You should consider it twice, if your brokers offer/allow this kind of promoting. For me, even if they will change their "policy" in the future, I won’t even consider talking with these brokers. (I receive phone calls, e-mails with "business" proposals, every week). There are a few of them that already "look big" on the web, because of this aggressive advertising from IBs.  Unfortunately, as brokers, they offer lousy services!!!


Signals Providers

These services, in my opinion, are the beginner trader’s worst nightmare. Being their clients, you will never learn how to trade. Being successful in this field means you will learn from your mistakes.

How can you learn if you don’t even know the reasons for placing that order on the market?
You will get feed on SMS, e-mail, social networks, with some "signal": buy here...exit there.  If they are right...you don't understand how. If they are wrong, you lose more than money: You will lose more than that. You will lose the opportunity to learn from that bad trade, not to mention, you will never "learn how to catch your own fishes". You will always depend on that "service" for as long as you will live...

Now, this "gang" is gathered on big websites that promote "performance links". This is another "trend" in this field. This is also a great IB business for the websites owners. To keep their "performances links" in place for more than a month, they have to open their real account on that website (referral link), yet, this is something that everyone forgets about:

"Past Results Do Not Guarantee Future Profits!"


And the worst part...I notice everyday, "known" traders around the world starting their own "signals services" business, instead of funding a company with shareholders, to invest on the market.
I find that so LAME...


Forums Traders


The beginning was great. I still remember those days, when there were few fair forums on the web. A nice place where you could talk, share your results, learn from advanced traders, and learn from their mistakes...

Those days are gone...and will never be the same again. Now forums have advertising contract and write articles for paid advertising, become IBs (sharing referral links) or started "performance links" business...

The forum traders now, are mostly beginners. They read a few things and tested it on demo and...Done. They are now "gurus" and teach trading! Every forum you might join, have thousands of threads opened...with different strategies and systems that had thousands of followers posting every day...charts, results...until eventually they stopped doing that and the thread was closed...Why ? Doesn't it work anymore?

Then the old followers become "gurus" and take the idea and start a new thread posting old links: "this is the original idea...and we are just improved it and end up with this...” And this...usually stop earlier than the original idea, because they don't have enough followers and expected results...

Then there is the "forum trader", thinking of starting his own "business"...by making his own forum. This is how all the forums around the web now have the same ideas (sometimes just copy+paste) from the FF Forum...the first great place...  This is how, learning from the web, today (for free), in 80% of cases is just a lost time...Sometimes money, too, if you open a real account without months of demo testing, before. And by testing all ideas shared on the web today...could really take you years...
So they thought: It is either you have time to get proper training in this field...or money to lose to buying other’s "experience". Sometimes it is both. I'm sure many of you, have a "deja vu" by reading this.

Advanced traders are no longer on the web, sharing for free, their experiences. They are "hidden", now, due to this "big noise" about the trading, everywhere.
Years ago, an advanced trader didn't have to "show" his statements. It was enough for us that he could answer all our questions, with lots of most logical details, for free. Also, when having lots of money in your account, you will start to think of personal security...so no real names, no other details.

Hey, have any of you seen the Warren Buffet "performance link”? How about his investor password? How about George Soros? Any other big trader's statements? :) I can assure you...you won’t see it! If a fair big trader what to share his results will build a company with shareholders, to invest on the market. (Like Warren Buffet did with Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)

Back then, when beginners were happy about results, they wanted to "show off" a bit and they were publishing their results (less than $ 50k). Now all beginners with few hundreds in their account "show off" with their statements to earn clients. Why? Their system is not working that good to "trade for living”?

This category represents that 80% noise...that will stop soon and they will vanish (when their "system" will stop working like on FF Forum, years ago). But new ones are coming...so watch out of these "show off" guys! They are not yet traders. They are just...beginners with some results. They are "forum traders"...


Strategies Sellers

If you can trade profitable, you can make millions, by starting with few thousands. Why should this trader allow this "stress" of having clients, for few thousands/month, only?
They are "forum traders" that had some results...but not enough. Why do I think this way?

It is simple: How much money can you make, by starting with $1 and having 100% profit (ROI), in 30 days?
Do the math for yourself. You don’t have to make 100% and you shouldn’t count days. Months or years will do, to have millions. Not to mention you don't have to start with $1...

So every time you meet a trader selling a strategy ask yourself this:

If it is that profitable, why does he/she sell it?
And why is it so cheap?

Would you sell a strategy that can get you millions?
How much money would you ask for it?


The web is full with these "successful strategies" with only $ 99.9! And when it comes to results...the monthly profit is between 99.9%-999999999% :)

So they built "good looking" websites and sell you the success in "just one click". Also, they have great reviews (fake ones) as comments (or now the upgraded versions of advertising it: many small websites around the big one, with fake communities, reviews, etc)

"What are you waiting for? Get it now with $99!!!"

I'm sure that many of you have a "deja vu", again... :)


EAs/Indicators Sellers

Ohh...what sweet memories. These products started few years ago, when if you were visiting a forum and you dare to talk about your strategy, the first comment would have been "Sounds great man! Can you share with us the EA? Please, please, please...” If you didn’t have one...you should have felt ashamed of yourself as a trader and run away crying to look for a programmer to build it fast :)
Today, we must agree automated trading is the best, but since you dont have a bank/hedging company EA to buy...why bother? All the other products on the market are just...
Why? Remember this?

If it is that profitable, why does he/she sell it?
And why is it so cheap?

Would you sell a EA that can get you millions?
How much money would you ask for it?

This product is also sold by beginners or unprofitable yet traders. Most of them are not only claiming they are traders. They say they have 10y market experience. This is how they got the strategy and worked really hard to build the EA. If you ask them how old they are...25 seems their lucky number :)
(So they started trading at 15y)


Book Writers

There are good books in this field. But also some that will make you to waste your time...and money.

By searching the eBay for some good new books, I wanted to know more about the writer of that "good book" I was watching, for sale $20 or something. I’ve checked the reviews...lots of positive ones. The good part came when I clicked on the writer ID to see other books he writes about. He turned out to writes good books also, about: cooking, gardening, paintings, sculpting, travel, etc....and trading.... :)

Also, if you will check some "great writers" books at the bibliography of book you will find out their "source" was many other good books. So nothing new...copy+paste like on forums (ofcourse edited with his own words - copyrights laws).

Therefore to find a good and helping book about trading, today, is really a challenge. Me personally, I've read thousands...and I must say less than 20% were good. The rest  were such a waste of good night's sleep...

That's why I can call trading "books selling" just the upgraded version of the "forum trader", when some beginners think they can "make some money fast", while advanced traders, use the marketing tricks to "write a new book", that doesn't necessary share something new or unwritten until now. So, most of them just "sell" their personal brand, not the books value...And I am really disappointed about my old "idols"...new books.


Trainers

You know how they say: "If you can't trade...teach!"

So, why should you pay for a trainer ...in trading? For his spent time with you?
Shouldn't he consider this as something to "give back to this field”?

And if his lessons are free around the web...and he can't trade successfully...what am I actually paying? Probably they think they teach you "how to do it". Yet, they fail to do it...for themself...if they charge you for this.

Some say that they like ...to travel. So this is the best way to travel for free...When I hear this "starting joke" at some courses...meetings, I leave immediately. To think of it, to say it in front of other people, when you pretend you are a trader...This is so LAME, again...

Yet, there are lots of "gurus" around the web. Usually they claim they are successful traders...And have some brilliant description "Best trainer in the..." or "The most beloved trainer in the ..."
Who gave him this ...title? Himself!

But I have to agree, there are some great courses out there. But how many of you payed some courses...that didnt helped you at all, as trader? "Deja vu", again? :)

I've attended many courses in my life. Few related to trading. And I must admit, most of them didn't offer me new knowledge. Mostly, these courses can be helpful for your...moral. But for this you shouldn't pay hundreds or thousands of dollars...

Finding a good course can be again, a challenge. All websites have payed "advertising": articles, forum comments, social networks, etc. So, finding decent reviews is hard. I started to think that friend’s reviews are the most trusted opinion. But this also turned out to become a "referral" business, (like in MLM "businesses" that made friends avoid contact with other friends that already "joined the system", because they can't stop "recommending it"...for a commission...).


Money Managers

By the book, a MM is a person that manages their client’s accounts. And yes, these MM should be traders. The problem is that every one is claiming around the web that he/she is a Money Manager.

I'm sure that my follows already know the TV Show (best documentary) "Million Dollars Traders!" produced by BBC. The purpose of the documentary was to find out if some persons with no previous knowledge about the market can become traders. Why? Because the Fund Manager, used to hire people with "experience" and not all of them...were profitable. They admitted that finding good traders is hard, because good ones trade for themself. And those that are willing to join don't come for a monthly salary, but for a big commission...which is not that good for their business. So they tried over the years to train traders. Again, after teaching them to trade profitable, they were leaving for building their own business...or carrier. :)

So if a big trader, does he chose to not become employee but decided to work for himself, as trader (or for his own company), why does he need clients?

Today, people are mistaken a MM with a "signal provider" that share his trades with a "trade copier" software.

In my opinion the definition by the book for MM, should be for institutional traders, only.

And a Private MM, should be able to teach you a strategy/a system (without being a strategy seller), then to be able to guide you (without charging for teaching) and then to become your mentor when you start to enter on the market (not to "share" his own trades using a "trade copier" or to sell you signals). And yes for this he might charge a monthly commission, when you have profits.

Why?  Well, he tells you how to do it...shows you how to it...and you are doing it, eventually, with his help. Working like this with a good MM, can help you become a trader yourself, eventually, in 1-2 years, but after that, you can trade for yourself, without paying thousands of dollars for books, courses, etc.  So this can save you money and ...time.

But finding again a good MM, is really a challenge. Especially now with these "performance links" websites, that claim they show you MMs. Yet, they are nothing but, signal providers.  They won’t teach you how; they will just "share" their trades with you...as long as you will pay for it. And even if you find a good one, if he will stop, someday, you must search all over again. Because you wont be able to trade for yourself. Not to mention not using their money, doesn’t represent a guarantee. They can fund their account with $100 and they can have $1 mil from their clients. If he loses that $100, he will just make a new account :)

That's why, I also agree with good traders, as MM, that builds their own company using shareholders as long as they can fund 51% from the trading budget. People that can't trade, they can be partners on a trading company that uses their money for trading on the markets- like a Hedging Company. If the MM is not good enough he will lose his money too (as an extra guarantee).


Conclusion:


As you can see, there are many sellers in this field, on the web. Not all are traders. I think there are more sellers than traders. Is hard to make this statistic, because I don't think all of them will admit it.

I let you to be the judge of that. Just watch the posts on trading groups on Facebook, forums, etc. And tell me who is really sharing something for free. How many of these free services do you consider useful and how many can be consider "marketing tools" for these services. Not to mention that I know good free sources on the web that aren't free...anymore.


Best Regards,
^^_Lord_Ice_^^